How Can a Statewide Per Capita Indicator Be Both $1.94 and $189?

Two Federal Register notices from FEMA this year carry titles a few words apart, and both announce a figure called a statewide per capita indicator. One figure is $1.94. The other is $189. Neither is a misprint and neither replaces the other. Both come from one regulation, both multiply a population, and both move with the same consumer price index. They answer different questions, count different money, and attach to different days on a disaster's calendar.

The $1.94 figure is one input into whether a disaster is declared at all. The $189 figure is the bar for recommending that the federal share of repair and emergency costs rise from 75 percent to as much as 90 percent once a declaration exists. The second number is 97.4 times the first, so a disaster can clear one by a wide margin and sit nowhere near the other.

Two Notices, One Word Apart

The first notice, published September 29, 2026 as document 2026-19855, is titled Notice of Adjustment of Statewide per Capita Impact Indicator. Its operative sentence reads: “FEMA gives notice that the statewide per capita impact indicator was increased to $1.94 for all disasters with an incident start date on or after October 1, 2025.” The regulation it names is 44 CFR 206.48, the factors FEMA weighs when a governor asks for a major disaster declaration.

The second, published April 28, 2026 as document 2026-08224, drops the word impact and adds a purpose: Notice of Adjustment of Statewide per Capita Indicator for Recommending a Cost Share Adjustment. Its summary reads: “FEMA gives notice that the statewide per capita indicator for recommending cost share adjustments for major disasters declared on or after January 1, 2026, through December 31, 2026 is $189.” The regulation behind it is 44 CFR 206.47, the cost-share section directly above.

So the shared name is shorthand. The declaration figure is the statewide per capita impact indicator; the cost-share figure is the statewide per capita indicator for recommending a cost share adjustment. What separates the two sits in the surrounding sentences: what gets divided by population, which date selects the year, which twelve months of inflation set the adjustment, and how long after the effective date the figure was printed. Both notices are on the Federal Register, FEMA Notice of Adjustment of Statewide per Capita Impact Indicator and the Federal Register, FEMA Notice of Adjustment of Statewide per Capita Indicator for Recommending a Cost Share Adjustment.

What Each Figure Is Measured Against

Paragraph (a)(1) of eCFR, 44 CFR 206.48, factors for a major disaster declaration request sets up the declaration figure. It reads: “We evaluate the estimated cost of Federal and nonfederal public assistance against the statewide population to give some measure of the per capita impact within the State.” The next sentence supplies the number and its adjustment: “We use a figure of $1 per capita as an indicator that the disaster is of such size that it might warrant Federal assistance, and adjust this figure annually based on the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers.”

Three words carry most of the weight. The numerator is estimated, because the comparison happens before any declaration, from damage assessments. It covers Federal and nonfederal assistance together, the whole eligible bill rather than the federal slice. And the figure is an indicator that a disaster might warrant help, weaker language than a threshold that entitles a state to it. The paragraph then adds a floor: “We are establishing a minimum threshold of $1 million in public assistance damages per disaster in the belief that we can reasonably expect even the lowest population States to cover this level of public assistance damage.” As printed, the adjustment clause belongs to the $1 per capita sentence; the $1 million sentence carries none of its own.

eCFR, 44 CFR 206.47, Cost-share adjustments is built differently. Paragraph (a) sets the default: “We pay seventy-five percent (75%) of the eligible cost of permanent restorative work under section 406 of the Stafford Act and for emergency work under section 403 and section 407 of the Stafford Act, unless the Federal share is increased under this section.” Paragraph (b) says FEMA recommends raising that share to not more than 90 percent “whenever a disaster is so extraordinary that actual Federal obligations under the Stafford Act, excluding FEMA administrative cost, meet or exceed a qualifying threshold of” the figure set in one of four numbered branches.

The four branches matter, because they show where the $189 came from. Branch (b)(1) set $75 per capita for disasters declared on or after May 21, 1999. Branch (b)(2) set $85 for disasters declared after January 1, 2000, through December 31, 2000. Branch (b)(3) set $100 for disasters declared after January 1, 2001. Branch (b)(4) is the one still running: “Effective for disasters declared after January 1, 2002 and for later years, $100 per capita of State population, adjusted annually for inflation using the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers published annually by the Department of Labor.” From that $100 base the cost-share figure has reached $189. From its $1 base the declaration figure has reached $1.94.

Side by side, the numerators differ on three counts. The first is estimated before a declaration; the second is actual obligations counted after. The first includes the nonfederal share; the second is federal money only, less FEMA administrative cost. And the first is confined by its words to public assistance, while the second is worded as actual Federal obligations under the Stafford Act, with administrative cost the one exclusion named. The denominators look alike, although the 2026 cost-share notice words its own as per capita of state or tribal population.

The Chain

The two figures are not alternatives. A large disaster meets both in sequence, and each is selected at a different link.

The first link is the incident start date. The September notice states: “This adjustment applies to major disasters with an incident start date on or after October 1, 2025.” The countywide companion, published the same day as document 2026-19858, uses the same anchor: “FEMA gives notice of an increase in the countywide per capita impact indicator to $4.86 for all disasters with an incident start date on or after October 1, 2025.”

The second link is the damage assessment, which produces the estimate that paragraph (a)(1) divides by statewide population and compares with $1.94. Paragraph (a)(2) looks below the state level, because “at times there are extraordinary concentrations of damages that might warrant Federal assistance even if the statewide per capita is not met.” The countywide figure is tied by its own notice to a different provision: “In assessing damages for area designations under 44 CFR 206.40(b), FEMA uses a countywide per capita indicator to evaluate the impact of the disaster at the county level.” Paragraph (b) of eCFR, 44 CFR 206.40, Designation of affected areas and eligible assistance carries no dollar figure; the designating official “may, based upon damage assessments in any given area, designate all or only some of the areas requested by the Governor for supplementary Federal assistance.” The $4.86 comes from the notice.

The third link is the declaration, and its date selects other numbers. The small project threshold printed on the same Federal Register page as the $1.94 notice, page 61430 of the September 29 issue, is keyed to it: “This adjustment applies to major disasters and emergencies declared on or after October 1, 2025.” That notice, document 2026-19898, sets the figure at $1,093,800. An incident that began September 30, 2025 and was declared in October 2025 falls outside the $1.94 window by its start date and inside the $1,093,800 window by its declaration date. The printed page is on the U.S. Government Publishing Office, Federal Register printed edition of September 29, 2026.

The fourth link is the calendar year of the declaration, which selects the cost-share figure. The April notice is explicit: “For disasters declared on January 1, 2026, through December 31, 2026, the qualifying indicator is $189 per capita of state or tribal population.” A storm that starts on December 28, 2025 and is declared on January 6, 2026 is measured against $1.94 for the declaration and against $189 for any later cost-share request. Declared on December 30, 2025 instead, the same storm keeps the $1.94 and falls outside the $189 window.

The fifth link is the long one. Paragraph (b) of 206.47 counts actual obligations, which accumulate as projects are approved. Paragraph (c) widens the view: “When we determine whether to recommend a cost-share adjustment we consider the impact of major disaster declarations in the State during the preceding twelve-month period.” Paragraph (d) sits outside the arithmetic. If the disaster's needs warrant it, FEMA may recommend up to 100 percent federal funding for emergency work, including direct Federal assistance, “for a limited period in the initial days of the disaster irrespective of the per capita impact.” Of the four lettered paragraphs in 206.47, only (b) contains a per capita test.

Printed After the Window Opened

Both windows opened before their notices were published. The $1.94 applies to incidents starting on or after October 1, 2025; its notice appeared on September 29, 2026, 363 days later. The inflation input existed long before: “FEMA bases the adjustment on an increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers of 2.9 percent for the 12-month period that ended in August 2025.” The notice dates the Bureau of Labor Statistics release to September 11, 2025, which is 20 days before the window opened.

The $189 window opened on January 1, 2026, and its notice appeared on April 28, 2026, 117 days later. Here the input could not have been known on the window's first day: “This adjustment is based on an increase of 2.7 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers for the 12-month period that ended December 2025.” The notice dates that release to January 13, 2026, 12 days into the year.

Two differences in wording sit inside those windows. The declaration notice states a start, on or after October 1, 2025, and the text read for this piece states no closing date; the cost-share notice closes its window at December 31, 2026. And branches (b)(2), (b)(3) and (b)(4) of 206.47 each begin with disasters declared after January 1, while the 2026 notice begins with disasters declared on January 1. For a declaration signed on a New Year's Day, after and on are not the same instruction. The notice is the document that names the 2026 figure, and it includes the first day.

One Population, Worked Both Ways

Take a hypothetical state of 3,000,000 residents. Its declaration line under 206.48(a)(1) is $1.94 times 3,000,000, or $5,820,000 in estimated Federal and nonfederal public assistance. Its cost-share line under 206.47(b)(4), for a 2026 declaration, is $189 times 3,000,000, or $567,000,000 in actual Federal obligations. The second line is 97.4 times the first.

The gap is wider than the ratio, because the numerators are different money. If eligible public assistance cost landed exactly on the declaration line, the federal portion at the default 75 percent would be $4,365,000, under 1 percent of the cost-share line. A disaster that clears the declaration line tenfold, $58,200,000 in estimated cost, is still about a tenth of the way there before the federal share is taken out.

The $1 million floor matters only at the small end. Dividing $1,000,000 by $1.94 gives 515,463.9, so for any population below 515,464 the floor is the higher bar. Below the state level, a hypothetical county of 50,000 residents reaches the countywide figure at $4.86 times 50,000, or $243,000.

The statewide quotient can hide a larger local one. Paragraph (a)(2) records that FEMA has “at times seen localized damages in the tens or even hundreds of dollars per capita though the statewide per capita impact was low.” Hundreds of dollars per capita in one county is the same order of magnitude as $189, but the cost-share test divides by the whole state.

An Indicator Among Six Factors

The declaration figure is sharper on paper than in use. The opening text of 206.48 says “these are the primary factors in making a recommendation to the President whether assistance is warranted” and adds that FEMA considers other relevant information as well. Paragraph (a) lists six factors for public assistance, and only the first holds the $1.94 test.

Factor (a)(2), localized impacts, can carry a request when the statewide quotient falls short. Factor (a)(3) subtracts insurance: “We consider the amount of insurance coverage that is in force or should have been in force as required by law and regulation at the time of the disaster, and reduce the amount of anticipated assistance by that amount.” Required coverage that was not carried still comes off. Factor (a)(4) credits mitigation, naming the case where it matters most, disasters in which, because of mitigation, “the estimated public assistance damages fell below the per capita indicator.” Factor (a)(5) looks at the last twelve months of disaster history, including declarations by the governor and state spending. Factor (a)(6) asks whether programs of other Federal agencies fit the need better.

So the two numbers sit in different kinds of sentence. In 206.48 the figure is an indicator among six factors, with a mitigation clause that expects some disasters to fall below it. In 206.47 it is a qualifying threshold, and paragraph (c) adds the twelve-month record of declarations before a recommendation goes forward. The pattern has appeared here before, in one agency carrying two thresholds for the same pipeline damage, and in FEMA's own flood rules, where a flood map without an elevation steps the building standard down. A shared name is not a shared test.

Where This Doesn't Apply

This piece covers the public assistance side of the declaration decision. Paragraph (b) of 206.48, six factors for the Individual Assistance program, was read only for its structure, and nothing above should be carried into it. Emergency declarations fall outside the sections read, apart from the small project notice that names both kinds.

The population both figures multiply is not taken from any document read here. The regulation says statewide population and State population; the 2026 cost-share notice says state or tribal population. Which count FEMA applies to a request may show in its preliminary damage assessment reports, and the report requested for this piece returned a fetch error. FEMA's web page listing the indicators by fiscal year also failed to load, so whether either figure appeared there before its notice is not established. The gaps of 363 days and 117 days are measured to Federal Register publication only.

Intermediate years are absent on purpose. The $1, $75, $85 and $100 bases are printed in the regulation; the annual values between them and the 2026 figures were not retrieved. The 75, 90 and 100 percent shares are limits on what FEMA recommends under 206.47, and the share a disaster receives is set by its declaration and amendments, which were not read. Every dollar total for the hypothetical state and county is a printed figure times a round population, and none describes a real request.